gummy-stuff.org Markets as machinery · and the arithmetic underneath

Browse · no dropdowns

Sections

Eight sections, 28 entries. Every one of them is listed here and on the register.

01 · The Certificate

What a certificate isAn engraved share certificate is a receipt for a claim: a stated fraction of a company, with a right to vote and a right to whatever is left after everybody else is paid. The engraving, the seal and the counterfoil are all anti-forgery engineering, and the document itself has now almost entirely disappeared into a register entry.
Bearer and registeredWhether the paper itself is the claim, or merely evidence of an entry elsewhere.
The counterfoilThe stub that stays in the book, and the audit trail it creates.
DematerialisationThe paper leaves and the register remains.

02 · The Book

Bid and askTwo queues facing each other. The gap between the best of each is the spread, and it is the cost of immediacy.
Matching rulesPrice first, then time. Simple to state, and it determines who trades.
DepthWhat sits behind the best price, and why size moves it.
The empty sideWhat happens when nobody is willing to take the other end.

03 · The Room

Every trade had an addressOpen-outcry floors were organised spatially: a pit for each instrument, and position in it mattered.
Hand signalsA working sign language developed because shouting did not scale.
The room emptiesElectronic matching removed the floor and kept the vocabulary.

04 · Clearing & Settlement

Why settlement takes daysBetween agreeing a trade and exchanging cash for title there is netting, confirmation and delivery. The delay is administrative history, not physics.
The central counterpartyAn institution that stands between both sides so neither has to trust the other.
NettingThousands of obligations collapsed into a few payments.
Failure to deliverWhat the plumbing does when something does not arrive.

05 · The Index

What an index isA rule for selecting members and a rule for weighting them. Both are choices, and both change what the number reports.
WeightingBy price, by size, or equally — three indices of the same market that disagree.
SurvivorshipMembers leave when they fail, and the record keeps only those who stayed.

06 · Compounding

Multiply, do not addGrowth compounds as a product of factors, not a sum of percentages, which is why intuition about it is reliably wrong.
The mean of factorsThe average that describes compound growth is geometric, and it is always lower than the arithmetic one.
A fall needs a bigger riseDown a half, then up a half, leaves you down a quarter.

07 · Average & Median

An average is not an outcomeIn a skewed distribution most results sit below the mean, so the average describes almost nobody.
The long tailA few very large values dragging a mean away from the middle.
DispersionThe spread is the information the average threw away.

08 · Manias

Tulips, as recordedWhat the contemporary records actually show about the Dutch bulb trade, which is narrower and stranger than the popular account.
The railway boomEnormous capital raised for lines that were built, plus lines that were not.
The South Sea affairA debt conversion scheme wrapped in a trading monopoly, and the legislation that followed it.
What the accounts recordWhere the surviving numbers come from, and their limits.